Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) – Fair Value & Investment Analysis

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) is listed on NYSE and operates in the Oil & Gas Integrated industry (Energy sector).

Current Price
$14.01
Market Cap
$28.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$25.46
Fair Value Range
$23.76 – $27.17
Margin of Safety
45.0%

Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. The company operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining, Petrochemical and Biofuels; and Electric Power Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. It engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas; transportation of crude oil, motor fuels, fuel oil, and other refined products, including diesel, jet, and biofuels; processing and refining crude oil; distribution of natural gas and LPG; sale of refined and petrochemical products; supplying of electric power transmission services; design, development, construction, operation, and maintenance of road and energy infrastructure projects; and supplying of information technology and telecommunications services. As of December 31, 2021, the company had approximately 9,127 kilometers of crude oil and multi-purpose pipelines. It also produces and commercializes polypropylene resins and compounds, and masterbatches; and offers industrial service sales to customers and specialized management services. It has operations in Colombia, the United States, Asia, Central America and the Caribbean, Europe, South America, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos and changed its name to Ecopetrol S.A. in June 2003. Ecopetrol S.A. was incorporated in 1948 and is based in Bogotá, Colombia.

V-TRAGE Screening Summary

Safety

Valuation

Analyst Recommendations

RatingAnalysts
Strong Buy0
Buy3
Hold6
Sell2
Strong Sell0

Company Overview

Ecopetrol S.A. is an integrated energy company based in Bogotá, Colombia, incorporated in 1948. It operates through four main segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining, Petrochemical and Biofuels; and Electric Power Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The company is involved in the exploration and production of oil and gas, transportation of crude oil and refined products, and the processing and refining of crude oil. It also distributes natural gas and LPG, sells refined and petrochemical products, and provides electric power transmission services. Additionally, Ecopetrol engages in the design, development, construction, operation, and maintenance of road and energy infrastructure projects, and offers information technology and telecommunications services. As of December 31, 2021, Ecopetrol managed approximately 9,127 kilometers of pipelines. The company also produces and markets polypropylene resins, compounds, and masterbatches, and provides industrial and specialized management services. Ecopetrol operates in Colombia, the United States, Asia, Central America and the Caribbean, Europe, and South America. It was formerly known as Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos until June 2003.

Historical Performance

Over the past three fiscal years, the company has faced a consistent decline in revenue, which decreased at a CAGR of 11.8% from COP 143.2 trillion in 2023 to COP 111.5 trillion in 2025. This revenue contraction has been accompanied by a significant drop in profitability, with gross margins compressing by 7.0pp to 31.4%, operating margins decreasing by 6.9pp to 22.3%, and net margins falling by 7.2pp to 7.5% over the same period. Despite these challenges, the company has demonstrated strong cash generation capabilities. Operating cash flow increased from COP 14.4 trillion to COP 25.3 trillion, and free cash flow surged by 67.5% CAGR to COP 16.2 trillion, with the FCF margin improving by 10.5pp to 14.5%. This indicates a robust cash conversion, supported by a CCR that consistently increased to 3.01, suggesting that earnings are well-backed by cash. However, capital efficiency has deteriorated, as evidenced by a declining asset turnover ratio, which fell to 0.38, and a rising capex intensity, now at 8.2%. The company's net debt position has increased, reaching COP 98.4 trillion, reflecting a higher leverage level. Despite these headwinds, the company has maintained a stable liquidity position with a current ratio of 1.55 and a quick ratio of 1.30, ensuring it can meet its short-term obligations.

Recent News

Recent developments for Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC) highlight significant analyst activity and credit rating changes. On April 21, Zacks Investment Research included Ecopetrol in its list of "New Strong Buy Stocks" and "Best Value Stocks," indicating a positive outlook from analysts. Additionally, on April 16, Zacks recommended Ecopetrol as one of the "4 Energy Stocks to Buy" amid shifting geopolitical landscapes. In terms of credit ratings, Standard & Poor's Global Ratings revised Ecopetrol's global credit rating from BB to BB- with a stable outlook on April 9, aligning with the sovereign credit rating adjustment for Colombia. This change reflects Ecopetrol's substantial role in Colombia's hydrocarbon production and energy sectors. Furthermore, Ecopetrol's shares experienced a 4.5% surge, as reported on April 16, reflecting market optimism. However, the stock has been subject to fluctuations, with a recent average rating of "Reduce" and a target price of $10, as noted on April 6. These developments suggest a mixed but cautiously optimistic sentiment towards Ecopetrol's market position and financial health.