Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) – Fair Value & Investment Analysis

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) is listed on NYSE and operates in the Copper industry (Basic Materials sector).

Current Price
$58.69
Market Cap
$84.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$55.84
Fair Value Range
$52.09 – $59.59
Margin of Safety
-5.1%

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. engages in the mining of mineral properties in North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals, as well as oil and gas. Its assets include the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia; Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita, and Miami in Arizona; Tyrone and Chino in New Mexico; and Henderson and Climax in Colorado, North America, as well as Cerro Verde in Peru and El Abra in Chile. The company also operates a portfolio of oil and gas properties primarily located in offshore California and the Gulf of Mexico. As of December 31, 2021, it operated approximately 135 wells. The company was formerly known as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and changed its name to Freeport-McMoRan Inc. in July 2014. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

V-TRAGE Screening Summary

Safety

Valuation

Analyst Recommendations

RatingAnalysts
Strong Buy0
Buy24
Hold14
Sell3
Strong Sell0

Company Overview

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is a mining company headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, incorporated in 1987. The company operates in the basic materials sector, focusing on the extraction and production of copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals, as well as oil and gas. Its mining operations are spread across North America, South America, and Indonesia. Key assets include the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia; Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita, and Miami in Arizona; Tyrone and Chino in New Mexico; and Henderson and Climax in Colorado. In South America, the company operates the Cerro Verde mine in Peru and the El Abra mine in Chile. Additionally, Freeport-McMoRan manages a portfolio of oil and gas properties, primarily located offshore in California and the Gulf of Mexico, with approximately 135 wells in operation as of December 31, 2021. The company was formerly known as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. until it adopted its current name in July 2014.

Historical Performance

Over the past three fiscal years, the company has demonstrated a consistent revenue growth trajectory, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5%, increasing from $22.7 billion in 2023 to $25.7 billion in 2025. This growth has been accompanied by an even stronger increase in earnings per share (EPS), which rose at a CAGR of 9.0%, from $1.28 to $1.52, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency. However, the company's gross margin has experienced a consistent decrease, falling by 3.3 percentage points from 30.3% to 27.0%, which suggests rising costs or pricing pressures. Despite this, the net margin showed a slight improvement, increasing by 0.5 percentage points to 8.6%, highlighting the company's ability to maintain profitability amidst margin pressures. Cash flow from operations was inconsistent but ended higher at $5.61 billion, while free cash flow (FCF) saw a significant increase, with a CAGR of 56.6%, reaching $1.12 billion by 2025. This improvement in FCF, alongside a rising FCF margin, underscores enhanced cash generation capabilities. The company's net debt position increased consistently, with net debt rising from $4.53 billion to $8.15 billion, reflecting higher leverage. Despite this, the interest coverage ratio remains robust at 17.7x, indicating strong earnings relative to interest obligations. Overall, the company has managed to grow and improve its cash generation, although it faces challenges in maintaining its gross margin.

Recent News

Recent developments for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) are primarily focused on upcoming earnings and significant trading activity. As the company approaches its Q1 earnings release, there is heightened anticipation regarding its financial performance, with several reports from Zacks Investment Research questioning whether FCX will beat estimates and advising on stock actions. Meanwhile, the stock has reached a new 12-month high, trading as high as $70, although Scotiabank has trimmed its price target to $71, potentially capping further momentum. In terms of trading activity, Merit Financial Group LLC and Moran Wealth Management LLC have increased their holdings in FCX, purchasing 23,501 and 11,941 shares, respectively. Additionally, AE Wealth Management LLC acquired 144,674 shares, reflecting a significant institutional interest. However, insider selling has been noted as executives sold shares while the stock price rallied. These transactions suggest a mixed sentiment among investors, with institutional buying indicating confidence, while insider selling may raise questions about the stock's future trajectory. Overall, the market is closely watching FCX's upcoming earnings report for further direction.