HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) – Fair Value & Investment Analysis

HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) is listed on NYSE and operates in the Medical - Care Facilities industry (Healthcare sector).

Current Price
$404.69
Market Cap
$89.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$612.80
Fair Value Range
$572.31 – $653.29
Margin of Safety
34.0%
Growth Classification
Fair Growth

HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services company in the United States. The company operates general and acute care hospitals that offers medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic, and emergency services; and outpatient services, such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. It also operates outpatient health care facilities consisting of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, physician practices, and various other facilities. In addition, the company operates psychiatric hospitals, which provide therapeutic programs comprising child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol, drug abuse treatment, and counseling services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 182 hospitals, including 175 general and acute care hospitals, five psychiatric hospitals, and two rehabilitation hospitals; 125 freestanding surgery centers; and 21 freestanding endoscopy centers in 20 states and England. The company was formerly known as HCA Holdings, Inc. HCA Healthcare, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.

V-TRAGE Screening Summary

Safety

Valuation

Analyst Recommendations

RatingAnalysts
Strong Buy0
Buy30
Hold14
Sell2
Strong Sell0

Company Overview

HCA Healthcare, Inc., headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee, is a healthcare services provider in the United States. Founded in 1968, the company operates a network of general and acute care hospitals offering a range of medical and surgical services, including inpatient, intensive, cardiac, diagnostic, and emergency care. Additionally, HCA Healthcare provides outpatient services such as surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. The company also manages various outpatient facilities, including ambulatory surgery centers, emergency care facilities, urgent care centers, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, and physician practices. Furthermore, HCA Healthcare operates psychiatric hospitals offering therapeutic programs for child, adolescent, and adult psychiatric care, as well as alcohol and drug abuse treatment and counseling services. As of December 31, 2021, HCA Healthcare operated 182 hospitals, including 175 general and acute care hospitals, five psychiatric hospitals, and two rehabilitation hospitals, along with 125 freestanding surgery centers and 21 freestanding endoscopy centers across 20 states and England.

Historical Performance

Over the past three fiscal years, the company has demonstrated robust growth and improved profitability. Revenue consistently increased at a CAGR of 7.9%, rising from $64.97 billion in 2023 to $75.6 billion in 2025. This growth was accompanied by a significant improvement in profitability, as evidenced by the operating margin expanding by 1pp from 14.8% to 15.8%, and the net margin increasing by 0.9pp to 8.97%. The company's earnings per share (EPS) surged at a remarkable CAGR of 22.3%, reaching $28.38 in 2025, further amplified by a 16.5% reduction in share count through aggressive buybacks, which enhanced per-share value creation. Cash flow generation also strengthened, with operating cash flow (OCF) growing at a 15.8% CAGR to $12.64 billion, and free cash flow (FCF) increasing at a 28.1% CAGR to $7.69 billion, resulting in an FCF margin of 10.2%. Despite the increase in net debt from $40.92 billion to $49.16 billion, the company's interest coverage ratio improved to 5.37x, indicating manageable leverage. The company's capital efficiency improved, with a consistent decrease in capex intensity to 6.5% and an increase in FCF conversion to 60.9%, reflecting a capital-light model. However, liquidity remains a concern with a current ratio below 1, suggesting potential short-term financial constraints. Overall, the company's strategic focus on profitability and shareholder value has yielded positive outcomes, supported by strong cash generation and efficient capital management.

Recent News

Recent developments for HCA Healthcare focus on upcoming earnings and analyst activity. As HCA prepares to release its Q1 earnings, concerns have been raised about the potential impact of higher costs and lower occupancy rates on its financial performance. Analysts from Zacks Investment Research and Seeking Alpha have highlighted these issues as key factors to watch. In terms of analyst ratings, Mirae Asset Global Investments Co. Ltd. increased its holdings in HCA by 4% during the fourth quarter, reflecting confidence in the company's prospects. Conversely, Ascent Group LLC reduced its holdings by 2% in the same period. Additionally, HCA Healthcare has been recognized for its strong performance, with 29 of its hospitals named among Modern Healthcare's 100 Top Hospitals. Despite these accolades, the company faces scrutiny over its ability to maintain revenue and earnings growth amid industry challenges. As the healthcare sector remains a focal point for investors, HCA's upcoming earnings report will be closely monitored for insights into its operational resilience and strategic direction.