The Kroger Co. (KR) – Fair Value & Investment Analysis

The Kroger Co. (KR) is listed on NYSE and operates in the Grocery Stores industry (Consumer Defensive sector).

Current Price
$70.60
Market Cap
$43.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$99.79
Fair Value Range
$94.73 – $104.86
Margin of Safety
29.3%

The Kroger Co. operates as a retailer in the United States. The company operates combination food and drug stores, multi-department stores, marketplace stores, and price impact warehouses. Its combination food and drug stores offer natural food and organic sections, pharmacies, general merchandise, pet centers, fresh seafood, and organic produce; and multi-department stores provide apparel, home fashion and furnishings, outdoor living, electronics, automotive products, and toys. The company's marketplace stores offer full-service grocery, pharmacy, health and beauty care, and perishable goods, as well as general merchandise, including apparel, home goods, and toys; and price impact warehouse stores provide grocery, and health and beauty care items, as well as meat, dairy, baked goods, and fresh produce items. It also manufactures and processes food products for sale in its supermarkets and online; and sells fuel through 1,613 fuel centers. As of January 29, 2022, the company operated 2,726 supermarkets under various banner names in 35 states and the District of Columbia. The Kroger Co. was founded in 1883 and is based in Cincinnati, Ohio.

V-TRAGE Screening Summary

Safety

Valuation

Analyst Recommendations

RatingAnalysts
Strong Buy0
Buy21
Hold17
Sell6
Strong Sell0

Company Overview

The Kroger Co. is a U.S.-based retailer operating in the consumer defensive sector, specifically within the grocery store industry. The company manages a variety of store formats, including combination food and drug stores, multi-department stores, marketplace stores, and price impact warehouses. These stores offer a range of products such as groceries, organic produce, pharmacies, general merchandise, apparel, home goods, electronics, and toys. Kroger also provides health and beauty care, fresh seafood, and pet supplies. Additionally, the company manufactures and processes food products for sale in its supermarkets and online platforms. Kroger operates 1,613 fuel centers, enhancing its service offerings. As of January 29, 2022, Kroger managed 2,726 supermarkets under various banner names across 35 states and the District of Columbia. Founded in 1883, the company is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

Historical Performance

Over the past three fiscal years, the company has experienced a mixed performance across various financial metrics. Revenue showed an inconsistent trend, slightly declining at a CAGR of -0.8% from $150.0 billion in 2023 to $147.6 billion in 2025. Despite this, the company managed to improve its free cash flow (FCF) at a CAGR of 7.8%, increasing from $2.9 billion to $3.4 billion, with FCF margins expanding by 0.3pp to 2.3%, indicating enhanced cash generation efficiency. However, profitability metrics faced pressure, with gross, operating, and net margins all experiencing declines. The operating margin decreased by 0.8pp to 1.3%, while the net margin fell by 0.8pp to 0.7%, reflecting challenges in maintaining cost efficiency as revenue fluctuated. Earnings per share (EPS) also saw a significant drop, declining at a CAGR of -27.9% from $2.96 to $1.54, although this was partially offset by a 9.7% reduction in share count through buybacks, which helped amplify per-share value. On the balance sheet, net debt consistently increased at a CAGR of 10.9%, reaching $21.3 billion, which, coupled with an interest coverage ratio of 3.0x, suggests a need for cautious financial management. Despite these challenges, the company demonstrated strong cash conversion with a cash conversion ratio (CCR) of 7.1, indicating that its earnings are well-supported by actual cash flows. Additionally, the company's working capital efficiency remained stable, with a cash conversion cycle (CCC) of -5 days, highlighting effective management of receivables, inventory, and payables.

Recent News

Recent news for The Kroger Co. centers around significant institutional trading activity and strategic initiatives. Birch Hill Investment Advisors LLC sold 10,676 shares of Kroger, while Wellington Management Group LLP increased its stake by acquiring an additional 12,652,261 shares, now holding 33,367,551 shares valued at approximately $2.25 billion. Allianz Asset Management GmbH also expanded its position, purchasing 2,100,444 more shares, bringing its total to 5,255,084 shares worth $354.2 million. On the strategic front, Kroger launched the Pearl Street Academy on April 16, a career development platform aimed at enhancing educational opportunities for its associates, supported by a tuition reimbursement program offering up to $21,000. Additionally, Kroger is capitalizing on online shopping trends with its Online Deal Days event from April 22 to May 5, offering significant savings through digital coupons. The company also expanded its partnership with Flashfood across its Mid-Atlantic division. These developments highlight Kroger's focus on enhancing employee development and leveraging digital sales channels, while institutional investors adjust their positions, reflecting confidence in the company's strategic direction.