ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) – Fair Value & Investment Analysis

ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) is listed on NYSE and operates in the Steel industry (Basic Materials sector).

Current Price
$59.17
Market Cap
$45.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$55.41
Fair Value Range
$51.92 – $58.90
Margin of Safety
-6.8%

ArcelorMittal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as integrated steel and mining companies in Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Africa. Its principal steel products include semi-finished flat products, including slabs; finished flat products comprising plates, hot- and cold-rolled coils and sheets, hot-dipped and electro-galvanized coils and sheets, tinplate, and color coated coils and sheets; semi-finished long products, which includes blooms and billets; finished long products, including bars, wire-rods, structural sections, rails, sheet piles, and wire-products; and seamless and welded pipes and tubes. The company's principal mining products comprise iron ore lumps, fines, concentrates, pellets, and sinter feeds; and coking and thermal coal, and pulverized coal injections. It sells its products to various customers in the automotive, appliance, engineering, construction, energy, and machinery industries through a centralized marketing organization, as well as distributors. The company has iron ore mining activities in Brazil, Bosnia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Liberia, Mexico, South Africa, and Ukraine; and coal mining activities in Kazakhstan. ArcelorMittal S.A. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Luxembourg City, Luxembourg.

V-TRAGE Screening Summary

Safety

Valuation

Analyst Recommendations

RatingAnalysts
Strong Buy0
Buy22
Hold18
Sell4
Strong Sell0

Company Overview

ArcelorMittal S.A., along with its subsidiaries, is an integrated steel and mining company operating across Europe, the Americas, Asia, and Africa. The company produces a range of steel products, including semi-finished and finished flat products such as slabs, plates, and coils, as well as semi-finished and finished long products like bars, wire-rods, and structural sections. Additionally, ArcelorMittal manufactures seamless and welded pipes and tubes. In the mining sector, the company produces iron ore in various forms, including lumps, fines, concentrates, pellets, and sinter feeds, alongside coking and thermal coal, and pulverized coal injections. ArcelorMittal serves industries such as automotive, appliance, engineering, construction, energy, and machinery through a centralized marketing organization and distributors. The company conducts iron ore mining in Brazil, Bosnia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Liberia, Mexico, South Africa, and Ukraine, and coal mining in Kazakhstan. Founded in 1976, ArcelorMittal is headquartered in Luxembourg City, Luxembourg.

Historical Performance

Over the past three fiscal years, the company has experienced a notable shift in its financial performance. Despite a consistent revenue decline at a CAGR of -5.2%, from $68.3 billion in 2023 to $61.4 billion in 2025, profitability metrics have improved significantly. The operating margin expanded by 2.5pp, from 3.4% to 5.9%, and the net margin increased by 3.8pp, reaching 5.1% by 2025. This margin expansion is indicative of effective cost management and operational efficiency, even as top-line growth contracted. Earnings per share (EPS) saw a remarkable increase, growing at a CAGR of 94.2% from $1.09 to $4.11, amplified by a 9.3% reduction in share count through buybacks, which enhanced per-share value creation. However, cash flow dynamics presented challenges; operating cash flow decreased consistently, with a CAGR of -20.7%, and free cash flow (FCF) was inconsistent, dropping from $3.0 billion to $471 million. This decline in cash generation, coupled with a consistent increase in net debt from $3.0 billion to $7.9 billion, suggests a need for careful cash management. Despite these challenges, the company's interest coverage ratio improved to 10.0x, indicating a stronger ability to meet interest obligations. Overall, while the company has successfully improved profitability and shareholder value through buybacks, it faces ongoing challenges in cash flow generation and rising debt levels.

Recent News

Recent developments for ArcelorMittal focus on analyst ratings and financial disclosures. On March 28, ArcelorMittal received a consensus "Hold" recommendation from analysts, with an average one-year price target of $51. Wells Fargo & Company increased their target price for the stock from $47, reflecting cautious optimism. The stock recently opened at $49, with a twelve-month low of $23. Additionally, on March 27, ArcelorMittal published its 2025 statutory financial statements, reporting revenues of $61 billion and production of 6 million metric tonnes of crude steel. Looking ahead, the company has scheduled its Annual General Meeting and Extraordinary General Meeting for May 5, 2026, where shareholders will review the 2025 Annual Report and other key documents. In terms of trading activity, Darwin Wealth Management LLC acquired 24,706 shares valued at approximately $1,126,000, indicating continued institutional interest. Meanwhile, ArcelorMittal plans to close more units in Ukraine, as reported on March 16. These developments highlight a period of strategic financial planning and cautious market positioning for ArcelorMittal.