Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) – Fair Value & Investment Analysis

Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) is listed on NYSE and operates in the Agricultural Inputs industry (Basic Materials sector).

Current Price
$71.59
Market Cap
$34.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$78.14
Fair Value Range
$73.78 – $82.51
Margin of Safety
8.4%

Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. It offers potash, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfate products; and financial solutions. The company also distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seeds, and merchandise products through approximately 2,000 retail locations in the United States, Canada, South America, and Australia. In addition, it provides services directly to growers through a network of farm centers in North America, South America, and Australia. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.

V-TRAGE Screening Summary

Safety

Valuation

Analyst Recommendations

RatingAnalysts
Strong Buy0
Buy20
Hold10
Sell3
Strong Sell0

Company Overview

Nutrien Ltd., established in 2017 and headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada, operates in the agricultural inputs industry. The company supplies a range of crop inputs and services, including potash, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfate products. Nutrien also offers financial solutions tailored to the agricultural sector. Through its extensive network of approximately 2,000 retail locations, the company distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seeds, and related merchandise. These retail outlets are strategically located across the United States, Canada, South America, and Australia. Additionally, Nutrien provides direct services to growers via its network of farm centers in North America, South America, and Australia. This comprehensive approach supports farmers in optimizing their crop production and management. Nutrien's operations are integral to the agricultural supply chain, facilitating access to essential inputs and services for growers in various regions.

Historical Performance

Over the past three fiscal years, the company's financial performance has shown notable fluctuations. Revenue demonstrated an inconsistent trend, decreasing at a CAGR of -3.0% from $29.1 billion in 2023 to $27.4 billion in 2025. Despite this revenue decline, profitability metrics improved, with the net margin expanding by 4.1pp from 4.3% to 8.4%, indicating enhanced cost management or operational efficiency. This improvement in margins is further reflected in the EPS, which grew at an impressive CAGR of 36.9%, rising from $2.53 to $4.74, suggesting strong per-share earnings growth. However, cash generation was less robust, with both operating cash flow and free cash flow declining at CAGRs of -10.3% and -9.1%, respectively, over the same period. The free cash flow margin also compressed by 1.0pp, ending at 7.4%. On the balance sheet, net debt consistently increased, rising from $11.6 billion to $12.2 billion, which could indicate increased leverage or investment activities. Despite these challenges, the company's capital efficiency showed signs of improvement, with asset turnover increasing to 0.53, and the cash conversion cycle decreasing to 54 days, reflecting better working capital management. The company's interest coverage ratio improved to 5.4x, suggesting a solid ability to meet interest obligations. Overall, while revenue faced headwinds, the company managed to enhance profitability and maintain a stable financial position.

Recent News

Nutrien Ltd. is preparing to release its first-quarter 2026 financial results, with the announcement scheduled for April 9. This comes amid heightened interest in basic materials stocks, as highlighted by Zacks Investment Research, which suggests potential earnings outperformance in the sector. Analyst sentiment towards Nutrien remains positive, with a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating and a one-year price target averaging C$80. Notably, TD Securities recently increased their target price from C$72, reflecting confidence in the company's prospects. Additionally, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and other financial institutions have raised their price targets for Nutrien, indicating a bullish outlook. In terms of trading activity, Captrust Financial Advisors acquired 12,079 shares of Nutrien, while Cardinal Capital Management Inc. reduced its holdings by 1% in the fourth quarter. These transactions are part of routine portfolio adjustments. Despite a 62% increase in Nutrien's stock price over the past year, some market participants remain cautious, as evidenced by discussions among Reddit traders. Overall, Nutrien's strategic positioning in the agriculture sector, coupled with favorable analyst ratings, suggests a promising outlook amidst ongoing market dynamics.