Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) – Fair Value & Investment Analysis

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is listed on NYSE and operates in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry (Energy sector).

Current Price
$262.62
Market Cap
$78.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$195.18
Fair Value Range
$181.67 – $208.69
Margin of Safety
-34.6%

Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. It produces conventional, premium, and reformulated gasolines; gasoline meeting the specifications of the California Air Resources Board (CARB); diesel fuels, and low-sulfur and ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuels; CARB diesel; other distillates; jet fuels; blendstocks; and asphalts, petrochemicals, lubricants, and other refined petroleum products, as well as sells lube oils and natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned 15 petroleum refineries with a combined throughput capacity of approximately 3.2 million barrels per day; and 12 ethanol plants with a combined ethanol production capacity of approximately 1.6 billion gallons per year. It sells its refined products through wholesale rack and bulk markets; and through approximately 7,000 outlets under the Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco brands. The company also produces and sells ethanol, dry distiller grains, syrup, and inedible corn oil primarily to animal feed customers. In addition, it owns and operates crude oil and refined petroleum products pipelines, terminals, tanks, marine docks, truck rack bays, and other logistics assets; and owns and operates a plant that processes animal fats, used cooking oils,...

V-TRAGE Screening Summary

Safety

Valuation

Analyst Recommendations

RatingAnalysts
Strong Buy1
Buy21
Hold14
Sell1
Strong Sell0

Company Overview

Valero Energy Corporation is an energy company involved in the manufacturing, marketing, and sale of transportation fuels and petrochemical products. Operating primarily in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Ireland, Valero functions through three main segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The company produces a variety of fuels, including conventional, premium, and reformulated gasolines, diesel fuels, jet fuels, and other refined petroleum products. It also engages in the production and sale of ethanol and related by-products such as dry distiller grains and inedible corn oil. As of December 31, 2021, Valero owned 15 petroleum refineries with a total throughput capacity of approximately 3.2 million barrels per day and 12 ethanol plants with a production capacity of about 1.6 billion gallons per year. The company distributes its products through wholesale and retail channels, including approximately 7,000 branded outlets. Additionally, Valero owns and operates logistics assets such as pipelines, terminals, and marine docks. Founded in 1980 and headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, the company was formerly known as Valero Refining and Marketing Company.

Historical Performance

Over the past three fiscal years, the company has faced a consistent decline in revenue, which decreased at a CAGR of -7.9% from $144.8 billion in 2023 to $122.7 billion in 2025. This decline in revenue was accompanied by a significant drop in earnings per share (EPS), which fell by 44.9% annually, from $24.95 to $7.57. Margins also suffered, with the gross margin decreasing by 4.5pp to 4.4%, and the operating margin declining by 4.7pp to 3.5%. Despite these challenges, the company maintained positive free cash flow (FCF), although it decreased from $8.3 billion to $5.0 billion, with the FCF margin compressing by 1.6pp to 4.1%. The company demonstrated strong cash conversion, with a cash conversion ratio (CCR) increasing to 2.48, indicating that earnings are well-supported by cash flows. Additionally, the company reduced its net debt by $1.3 billion, reflecting improved financial health. Notably, the company executed a share buyback program, reducing its share count by 12.5%, which helped enhance per-share value despite the broader financial declines. Asset turnover improved to 2.28, suggesting better utilization of assets, although the return on invested capital (ROIC) decreased to 8.97%, reflecting the overall profitability challenges.

Recent News

Recent developments for Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) focus on its financial performance and market positioning. As the company approaches its Q1 earnings release, analysts from Goldman Sachs and Zacks Investment Research have highlighted Valero as a potential outperformer among energy stocks. This optimism is partly due to the significant rise in diesel prices, which have surged by 59% in recent weeks, benefiting refiners like Valero that profit from the crack spread between crude oil and refined products. Valero's shares have appreciated by 39% this year and over 105% in the past year, reflecting strong market performance. Additionally, despite a recent 8.6% drop in share price, major financial institutions such as Barclays and UBS have raised their price targets for Valero, indicating continued confidence in its growth prospects. Furthermore, Valero has partially restarted its Port Arthur, Texas refinery following a recent incident, which may impact its operational capacity in the short term. Overall, Valero's financial outlook remains robust, supported by favorable market conditions and strategic positioning in the energy sector.